Mercedes Pascual Assistant Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan The complex systems models developed by Pascual help make sense of complicated, irregular cycles in ecosystems. Two years ago, the mathematical ecologist found that El Niño climate patterns can help trigger cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh. This summer, she and her colleagues compared cholera and climate records from the early 20th century with recent data and found that El Niño episodes have become more forceful drivers of disease outbreaks. It is the first quantitative evidence, she says, “for an effect of global climate change on an infectious disease.”